A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
